Wednesday, 24 May 2017

Martin Armstrong Rages: It’s Time to Take the Gloves Off!

No incoming President in history has ever been so constantly attacked than Donald Trump. Look, he says some stupid things and nobody is perfect. Still, there is a whole different agenda going on here with absolutely every issue being called a constitutional crisis worthy of impeachment.

Quite frankly, it is time to take off the gloves. Schumer demands a Special Prosecutor on this whole Russia nonsense that even Obama already said did not change any vote. What I would simply do is say fine, but also appoint a Special Prosecutor for Hillary Clinton standing trial for Treason selling influence that is obvious to everyone when as soon as she lost the election, he “charity” had to shut down. That was obviously pay-for-let’s make a deal. That was really Treason and let’s just see how many Democrats go down with the ship-Clinton.

This is not about Trump, every source I have is saying the same thing – this is an attempt to stop any reform process because the corruption in Washington runs so deep and they do not want anyone looking too closely.

The strategy is keep Trump occupied with scandal after sandal. The very fact that Trump called the NSA to inform them of his conversation with the Russian ambassador demonstrates that the NSA is out to get rid of Trump as is the CIA for they both ran to the New York Times and Washington Post. That in itself is Treason and putting National Security at risk far more than Trump warning Russia there was a plot to blow up one of their passenger planes again.


It’s time to take the gloves off. This is really war in Washington and it does not matter who is President, anyone trying to turn the money faucet off is not acceptable.

- Source, Martin Armstrong

Monday, 15 May 2017

Silver Demand Shows A Consumer In Trouble


Global demand for silver declined from 2015 to 2016 by 123 million ozs per numbers from the Silver Institute presented in an article on The Daily Coin yesterday. In fact, for the demand categories primarily driven by the consumer, demand plummeted 125 million ozs, or 15.3%. Industrial demand for silver increased slightly but this was because of the global expansion in the solar panel industry, primarily in India and China.

The consumer portion of global silver demand is derived from jewelry, coins and bars (investment), silverware and electronics. The 15.3% plunge in demand reflects the fact that consumer disposable income is drying up. After making required monthly expenditures – food, mortgage/rent, debt service, healthcare – consumers, especially in the United States, are out of money.

Disappearing disposable income explains only part of the equation. The illusion of economic improvement in the U.S. was created by debt issuance. Between Q3 2012 and now, total household debt expanded by $1.38 trillion dollars. In fact, total household debt is now at an all-time high, driven by auto, student, credit card and personal loans. The truth is that “discretionary” consumption was fueled by the Fed enabling the average U.S. household to accumulate a record level of debt.

The economy likely hit a wall in late 2016 and is now contracting. Today’s retail sales report – to the extent that the numbers have any credibility – showed a .4% gain in retail sales for April vs. March. But these are nominal numbers. On an inflation-adjusted basis, retail sales declined.

While demand for silver products reflects the fact that the average consumer is out of money, restaurant sales confirm this. April restaurant sales declined 1% in April and foot traffic into restaurants dropped 3.3%. This was the 12th month out of the last 13 that restaurant sales fell. Restaurant sales have dropped five quarters in a row. The last time a streak like this occurred was 2009-2010. Sound familiar?

Regardless of what the Fed says in public, the U.S. economy is in trouble. The illusion of economic growth post-2009 was a product of debt issuance. Now the consumer – 70% of the economy – has hit a wall with regard to its ability to take on more debt – look out below. In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth, we review the silver demand numbers and discuss the implications for U.S. and global economy.

- Source, Sprott Money

Friday, 12 May 2017

Ron Paul - More Spending as Expected


Join Ron Paul and Daniel McAdams as they discuss a 'Bipartisan' Budget. Congress has reached agreement on a stop-gap spending bill through September. Why did they all agree? There is lots of money for everyone! What's in the bill? Let's see...


Monday, 8 May 2017

Future World Economic Growth In Big Trouble As Oil Discoveries Fall To Historic Lows

Future global economic growth is in serious trouble as oil discoveries fell to historic lows last year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the sharp downturn in capital spending by the conventional oil sector was due to extremely low oil prices.

As the oil price fell to $30 in 2016, oil companies cut their exploration and capital expenditures by 25-40%. For example, ExxonMobil, the largest oil company in the United States, cut their capital expenditures by 26% in 2016, from $26 billion in 2015 to $16 billion last year. This had a profound impact on new oil discoveries.

According to the IEA report:

Oil discoveries declined to 2.4 billion barrels in 2016, compared with an average of 9 billion barrels per year over the past 15 years. Meanwhile, the volume of conventional resources sanctioned for development last year fell to 4.7 billion barrels, 30% lower than the previous year as the number of projects that received a final investment decision dropped to the lowest level since the 1940s.

By taking the IEA’s oil discovery data and comparing it to the total amount of conventional oil consumed by the world in 2016, here is the following chart:


The world consumed 69 million barrels per day of conventional oil last year, which equaled a total of 25 billion barrels (source: IEA report above). Which means, conventional global oil discoveries of 2.4 billion barrels were less than 10% of total world conventional oil consumption. This is extremely bad news.

To understand the breakdown in the different oil types, the IEA provided the following data:

Conventional oil production of 69 mb/d represents by far the largest share of global oil output of 85 mb/d. In addition, 6.5 mb/d come from liquids production from the US shale plays, and the rest is made up of other natural gas liquids and unconventional oil sources such as oil sands and heavy oil.

Global Conventional oil production was 69 million barrels per day (mbd) of the total 85 mbd, which included natural gas plant liquids and other unconventional sources such as shale oil (U.S.), heavy oil and tar sands. Typically, conventional oil is the higher quality, cheaper to produce oil.

Now, what is even more alarming, is that global oil discoveries have been much lower than production for quite some time. The IEA also stated that the amount of world conventional oil discoveries averaged about 9 billion barrels for the past 15 years. If we assume that the world was producing 65 mbd of “conventional oil” for the past 15 years (it was likely higher), the world was only replacing about 38% of its annual oil consumption.

Here are the oil figures:

65 mbd X 365 = 24 billion barrels

9 billion average annual barrels oil discovery / 24 billion barrels consumed = 38%

So, not only did the world only discover 10% of the conventional oil it consumed last year, it has only been replacing a little more than a third of what it has been consuming for in the past 15 years. This is extremely bad news and it is starting to catch up to us.

I will be writing more energy articles showing how the situation is becoming more dire for the U.S. and global oil industries. I am waiting for the top U.S. oil companies to release their detailed SEC quarterly results in a week to provide more information, but they have already released some results.

For example, ExxonMobil cut its capital expenditures another 19% during Q1 2017 versus the same period last year. Falling exploration and capital expenditures will grind to a halt future oil discoveries. Investors need to understand that this will impact global economic growth quite negatively in the future.

- Source, SRSRocco

Friday, 5 May 2017

Economic Demise Breeds Public Unrest


The Government reported its “advance” estimate of first quarter 2017 GDP today. The data-monkeys at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy grew at just 0.7% annualized in Q1. This is down from the alleged 2.1% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2016. It was also 36% below the 1.1% forecast of the average Wall Street monkey economist.

Next to the monthly employment report, the GDP report is subjected to the highest degree of statistical manipulation in order to make the reported reality look better than reality itself. If the Government was willing to release a report showing a 67% decline in economic growth from Q4 2016 to Q1 2017, imagine how bad the real numbers would show the economy to be.

The report itself, like the employment report, serves no purpose other than as tool for political goal-seeking and propaganda. The consumer spending component of the report fell to a .23% annualized growth rate. It was the worst level of consumer spending since 2009. If the Government were to apply a realistic GDP deflator (price change index) to its numbers, rather than the 2% used to calculate the final number, consumer spending would have been negative.

Worse, the various Government agencies are reporting inconsistent numbers. The Census Bureau’s monthly retail sales report showed a .4% gain in retail sales for January followed by .3% and .2% declines in February and March, respectively. To be sure, retail sales do not encompass the entirety of the “consumer spending” category. But, with average real disposable income declining, it’s difficult to believe that consumers were spending money on anything other than necessities in Q1.

The problem with the phony economic reports is that eventually the public begins to see and feel the truth. Fake economic news does not create real economic activity or real jobs. The economic separation between the “haves” and “have nots” has never been wider, both in the size of each cohort and the degree of separation.

When someone who is working two menial part-time jobs to make ends meet and reads that 200k jobs were allegedly created in a given month, that person knows and feels the truth. That person also begins to get angry. In fact, the general level of anger across the U.S. population is rising at an alarming rate. When 2x part-time jobber is driving in a high-mileage vehicle in need of repairs next to a brand new Ferrari with “FLIPPER” on the license plate, it foments anger. When this occurs daily across the country, it foments civil unrest.

If the economy were producing real growth in employment and wealth, as purported by the Government, not many people would care which person or political party occupies the White House. In fact, the party in power would get credit. But the growing political discord among the population is a reflection of a middle and lower class that is rapidly transitioning to lower and poverty class – and they are getting pissed. The stock market bubble, which is another form of propaganda, is only serving to intensify the anger.

- Source, SD Bullion

Monday, 1 May 2017

Silver Takes the Elevator Down

Last week, we talked about the effect of the French election on the gold and silver markets, and noted:

Of course, traders want to know how this will affect gold and silver. As we write this, we see that silver went down 30 cents before rallying back up to where it closed on Friday. Gold went downabout $20, and then half way back up.

At this point, we are not sure if the metals are supposed to go up because more printing. Or go downbecause the euro constrains France from printing. Or silver at least should go up because the economy is going to be better with France remaining in the Eurozone. Or go down because the ongoing malaise will only progress as it has been. Or some other logic… and the price gyrations this evening show that traders don’t agree either.

It didn’t take too long. Here is what happened to silver this week. The graph below shows the price of silver in real money (i.e. gold).

The Price of Silver in Real Money


Silver has been falling for going on one year, but clearly since March 1. After one last hurrah at the end of March, it has been taking the elevator down. And by its fundamentals it should be quite a bit lower—0.0125.

In any case, we are interested in watching what the fundamentals of the metals are doing. We will take a look at the graphs below, but first, the price and ratio charts.

The Prices of Gold and Silver


Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It had another major move up this week, after a major move up last week.

Last week, we said:

If prior peaks are an indication, there may be a spot of resistance at 72.5 (+0.8 above Friday’s close) and another at 73.25. If the ratio should go over these levels, then it may go all the way to its fundamental level (discussed below).

Well, it broke those levels and ended the week just under 74.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price


For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price


The scarcity (i.e. the cobasis, the red line) was on the rise this week. It makes sense, that as the price of gold drops (which is the mirror of what this graph shows, the price of the dollar in gold milligrams) the metal becomes scarcer. This means speculators are selling their paper. If owners of metal were selling, then the metal would not become scarcer and might even become more abundant.

However, it only became a little scarcer while the price dropped almost twenty bucks. So our calculated fundamental price fell $15 to $1,274, a few bucks above the market price.

Now let’s look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price



In silver, the price fell a lot. 72 cents. The cobasis rose (i.e. abundance dropped and scarcity increased).

Last week, we asked:

Some speculators definitely got flushed. However, the question is how many and how much?

Clearly it happened to more of them this week. And, unless the fundamentals get stronger, it is likely to flush even more leveraged futures positions. Our calculated fundamental price fell three cents this week, now a buck thirty under the market.

- Source, Keith Weiner via The Sprott Money Blog

Thursday, 27 April 2017

Do Central Bankers Want War to Hide the next Global Financial Crises?


Rob Kirby former derivatives broker/dealer & institutional trader discusses the ridiculous short positions on silver where there is not enough silver in the world versus the amount of short contracts at the COMEX

Rob also believes that geopolitical rhetoric ratcheting up of possible war by the U.S. and cohorts could be a cover up for the next Global financial crises, which he thinks could happen very soon.


Monday, 24 April 2017

Russia Claims it Could Completely Disable US Navy With Electronic Warfare Tech



There is an old saying in war. “No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy.” As China, Russia, and the United States beat the war drums and boast about the capabilities of their armies, they should take that saying very seriously. These geopolitical juggernauts may think that they have an ace in the hole for their militaries, but there’s no telling who would win in a war until the shooting starts.

In America’s case, our government puts a lot of faith in its expensive high-tech military. However, for decades countries like Russia and China have been developing cheap countermeasures to our best war machines, and they may be more effective than our politicians and generals would like to admit.

Or at least, that’s the takeaway from a Russian propaganda video that was released by Vesti, a media mouthpiece for the Kremlin. They claim that the Russian military has electronic warfare systems that can severely hinder the US Navy’s assets, including ships, planes and missiles.

The report claims that Russia has had a major breakthrough with this technology, which was demonstrated in an incident that occurred in the Black Sea in 2014. After Russia annexed Crimea the US deployed the USS Donald Cook to the area, and on April 12th, an unarmed Russian Su-24 fighter jet made a dozen very close range flyovers of the ship. Allegedly, the fighter jet was equipped with an electronic jamming device that disabled the ship’s AEGIS missile defense system. Though we know that the jet flew over the ship 12 times in a very provocative manner, the US government has never confirmed that the USS Donald Cook endured an electronic attack.

The report quoted a social media post from an unnamed sailor who was on the ship, which to be honest, sounded awfully fake, and doesn’t translate in a convincing way to English speakers.

“We watched the Russian on our locator until he reached the kill zone, to then ‘shoot him down.’ But when he entered the damned zone, mysticism began. Our locators were the first to go out, and then the whole Aegis went out. The pride of our fleet became our shame!”

The report also claims that Russia has electronic jamming equipment that can conceal their bases from radar, as well as devices that can jam signals to radio controlled landmines

Again, this is a work of propaganda, and shouldn’t be viewed without applying some critical thinking and research. However, to what degree that it is a work of fiction, is not clear. We don’t really know what the Russian military is capable of. Hopefully we’ll never find out.



Thursday, 20 April 2017

Why We’re Ungovernable: Europe Gets Its Doomsday Scenario

The rise of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has made a lot of people nervous since, among many other things, she’s in favor of leaving the Eurozone, which would pretty much end the common currency. But since polling has shown her making the two-person run-off round but then losing to a mainstream candidate, the euro-elites haven’t seen any reason to panic.

Here, for instance, is a chart based on February polling that shows Le Pen getting the most votes in the first round, but then – when mainstream voters coalesce around her opponent – losing by around 60% – 40%. The establishment gets a bit of a scare but remains firmly in power, no harm no foul.


Then came the past month’s debates in which a previously-overlooked communist candidate named Jean-Luc Mélenchon shook up the major candidates by pointing out how corrupt they all are. Voters liked what they heard and a significant number of them shifted his way.

Mélenchon: Far-leftist surges in French polls, shocking the frontrunners (France 24) – In a presidential campaign with more twists than a French braid, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s sudden play to become France’s third man — or better — is shaking up the race. With ten days to go before April 23’s first round vote, the colourful, cultured and cantankerous far-leftist has the frontrunners on the defensive.

Suddenly, the grumpy far-leftist — a showman in a Chairman Mao jacket who openly admired late Venezuelan populist leader Hugo Chavez — holds the mantle of France’s most popular politician. In the course of a whirlwind month, the 65-year-old Mélenchon surged nine spots to number one in weekly glossy Paris Match’s opinion poll. A full 68 percent of those surveyed hold “favourable opinions” of the far-left candidate, the poll by the Ifop-Fiducial firm showed.

On some polls, Mélenchon has now bypassed embattled conservative François Fillon for third place in a presidential race that will see the top two advance to the May 7 run-off.

An Ipsos poll on Tuesday put Mélenchon a half-point ahead of Fillon for third place in the race, behind National Front leader Marine Le Pen and the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron. With 18.5 percent, the far-leftist has gleaned 4.5 percent in just two weeks, with Macron and Le Pen tied on 24 percent.

Mélenchon wants to quit NATO, the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and block European trade treaties with the United States and Canada. He promises a French referendum on whether to stick with the reworked EU he is pledging to negotiate or leave the bloc altogether.

Here’s a chart from the Washington Post showing just how tight the race for the run-off spots has become:


It’s still unlikely that both Le Pen and Mélenchon will make the run-off, but based on the above chart it’s suddenly possible. This would be the cultural equivalent of a Trump – Bernie Sanders race in the US, but with – believe it or not — even higher stakes because both Le Pen and Mélenchon would threaten the existence of both the Euro and the European Union, the world’s biggest economic entity.

So it almost doesn’t matter who wins that run-off. Just the prospect of having one or the other in charge would tank the Euro and set off a stampede out of Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds, possibly doing irreparable damage to the Eurozone before the eventual winner even takes power.

To repeat the theme of this series, when you screw up a country’s finances you take its politics along for the ride. In France, the right feels betrayed by open borders and excessive regulation, the left by an unaccountable elite that always seems to profit at everyone else’s expense. And both sides suffer from soaring debt at every level of society.

So if a fringe candidate doesn’t win this time around, the mainstream will just make an even bigger mess, raising the odds of a fringe victory next a few years hence.


- Source, John Rubio via the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, 14 April 2017

Rick Rule: Extremely Rare & Bullish Trading Pattern in Gold and Silver


President and CEO of Sprott US Holdings Rick Rule says gold, silver, and the US dollar rarely trade how they are trading right now…

Gold, silver, and the US dollar are all trading higher. This trading pattern is extremely bullish for gold and silver, Rule says.

Rule also notes the current strength in the US dollar is not reflective of economic strength. He explains why the US economy is actually weak. In addition, US dollar strength won’t last. With a national debt nearing $20 trillion and unfunded liabilities above $100 trillion, long term there is no practical option out of this debt besides devaluation.

- Source, Silver Doctors

Monday, 10 April 2017

The Real Reason The Federal Government Have Been Keen to Blame Russia for Everything: Gold





How would you feel if you had planned a gathering of your closest family and friends and your list of invites grows to include some 185 guests. You also invited your known trouble-making cousin. Your cousin shows up drunk, armed and belligerent. He begins harassing a good portion of the guests, smashes some of your prized possessions and then, as an added bonus, he shoots and kills 12 of your guests.

As your cousin is leaving the gathering, he takes your wallet and your wife’s purse. He also goes in your bedroom, opens your safe and removes all your gold and silver. Your cousin now has all your credit and debit cards and all the cash you had on hand. You can not conduct business in any manner. You can’t even pay the caterer for their services.

If this sounds like a horrific story, you’re right - it is. The drunken cousin is a metaphor for how the U.S. has been acting for the past several years and how it has treated countries around the world. Do you suppose some of these nations are more than a little tired of being treated in this manner? Do you suppose that instead of acting as this oppressive “cousin” acts that some of these countries would find it better to simply develop a way to leave the “gathering” in a peaceful manner and get on with their own business?

As we reported on March 30 China and Russia are taking steps to move away from their out of control “cousin”, the Federal Reserve Note, U.S. dollar, world reserve currency.

We learned in March 2016 that Kazakistan had been in formal talks with the Shanghai Gold Exchangeregarding gold as currency along the New Silk Road (One Belt One Road) spearheaded by China. Kazakistan also smelts most of Russia’s gold and mines a small amount gold annually and is a member of both the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Eurasia Economic Union (EEU).

Then, in October of 2016 we continued covering how China had been working directly with the IMF to get the yuan/renminbi currency added to the SDR basket of currencies for global trade. That now appears to be a cover story for what lay ahead. With the renminbi now a global currency that changes how the renminbi functions within the currency markets and in global trade negotiations.

For the better part of the past year it has seemed as if the mainstream media, with talking points from the federal government, had been 100% obsessed with “Russia did it!!” “It” could be anything as the story has morphed so many times it’s hard to keep track. The “it” is not near as important as the cheerleading by the MSM to remind the public Russia is to blame!

The Russian obsession has, for the past several months, been running along side a new “enemy” – China. China and the South China Sea has been another point of beating war drums for the mainstream media. We now have two new enemies outside of Syrian President Assad, Iran, Iraq, Libya and whoever else we feel we need to bully. The whole list of enemies continues to grow even though there are exactly zero threats to the U.S. from any of these countries.

China began working their CIPS system, global trade settlement system, in October 2016, the same time the renminbi joined the SDR basket, allowing China to conduct global trade outside the U.S. owned and operated SWIFT system. Both systems are used to settle global trade transactions and the SWIFT system has been geared to the Federal Reserve Note – U.S. dollar – while the CIPS system is geared to the Chinese renminbi.

- Source, Sprott Money

Wednesday, 5 April 2017

Jim Rickards Warns Financial Calamity is Coming


Financial expert James Rickards is adamant that a financial shutdown and calamity is “Coming Sooner Than Later…”


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